SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151139
NCZ000-SCZ000-151245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 145...
VALID 151139Z - 151245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 145 CONTINUES. A NEW
TORNADO WW LIKELY WILL BE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
THE CENTER OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE FROM NEAR GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC THROUGH THE GREENSBORO
NC AREA BY THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DIFLUENT EXIT
REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOSES THROUGH THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NOW ONGOING OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
..LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL BE WEAK AT BEST DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. BUT...STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY
COMPENSATE...IN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF CYCLONE
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.
.KERR.. 04/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
33018121 33778083 34658044 35867920 36067785 35887644
35157628 33107918 32428079
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