SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151331
FLZ000-151430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF FL PENINSULA AND KEYS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151331Z - 151430Z
WW NECESSARY ACROSS LARGE PORTION FL PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF LINE OF
STG-SVR TSTMS NOW CROSSING W-CENTRAL COAST AND N FL.
THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON HOURS...EXPECT PRE-STORM SFC
DESTABILIZATION AMIDST DIABATIC HEATING...COMBINED WITH SFC DEW
POINTS LOW 70S F...TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND YIELD
MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER BULK OF SRN/ERN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS MAY SHRINK SLIGHTLY AS SFC WINDS VEER IN RESPONSE TO NEWD
SHIFTING OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING ACROSS VA/CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS...STRENGTHENING OF GRADIENT WINDS
ALOFT AND THEIR WLY COMPONENT SHOULD MAINTAIN/ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...KEEPING OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SVR. EVEN THOUGH
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN QUASI-LINEAR...EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND/OR CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS
WILL POSE SOME TORNADO RISK...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND.
OCCASIONALLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. THREAT MAY DIMINISH SWD
WITH TIME OVER KEYS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.
.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...
27518283 29178179 29998129 28858076 28448051 28398059
27888042 26818001 25458017 24798076 24528181 24558219
24618216 24718143 24838094 25038076 25068105 25198116
25388115 25768134 25918164 25828167 26348185 26478198
26398206 26448220 27038243 27378264
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