SWODY1
SPC AC 151603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...AND OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES...
..EASTERN NC...
INTENSE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY OVER THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
NC. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A MESOLOW SOUTH OF RDU TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SUPERCELL STORMS AND THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NC. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER
THIS REGION SHOW EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 500-800 M2/S2 AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BOW/LEWP CONFIGURATIONS
WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER THIS AREA.
..SC/NC/SOUTHEAST VA...
FARTHER WEST...CLEARING SKIES ARE RESULTING IN HEATING AND MIXING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN SC. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST
VA. SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WAKE OF MESOLOW
INDICATE SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.
HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER MAINTAIN A
RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCE RISK
OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
..FL...
SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS ALONG THE LINE...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES UNTIL ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
.HART/JEWELL.. 04/15/2007
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