SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151619
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-151745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN NC...N-CENTRAL SC...S-CENTRAL VA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151619Z - 151745Z
SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER DISCUSSION AREA AS BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES BENEATH 120-140 KT UPPER JET MAX.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY LOW INVOF NC/VA BORDER -- NE GSO.
THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE DEEPENING AND MOVE NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SERN VA. TRAILING SEGMENTED COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED FIRST FROM LOW SWWD ACROSS HKY-AVL AREAS AS OF 16Z...THEN
SWD FROM VICINITY HKY ACROSS SERN GA. DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY --
DEMARCATING SRN PORTION OF RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS -- IS EVIDENT FROM
NEAR GSO EWD. AIR MASS E OF COLD FRONTAL ZONES AND S OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING SFC DIABATIC
HEATING...LEADING TO GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN VIS
IMAGERY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT
OVERSPREADS REGION...HELPING TO MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES.
FURTHER...SFC DEW POINTS LOW 60S OVER WRN PORTION OF AREA...TRENDING
TO MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS CENTRAL NC -- CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED AND
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER CENTRAL/WRN NC -- IN RESPONSE TO STRONGEST
ISALLOBARIC FORCING LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WW 147 -- DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR.
.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
35418265 35758152 36248079 37017911 36907822 36367831
35487907 34598027 34468117 35178160 35258243
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