MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0503

ACUS11 KWNS 151516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151515
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-151715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...SERN VA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 147...

VALID 151515Z - 151715Z

SVR THREAT CONTINUES IN REMAINDER WW 147. AREA N OF WW ACROSS SERN
VA AND EXTREME NERN NC MAY NEED ADDITIONAL WW WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.

SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT ACROSS WW...EACH OF WHICH
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED/MRGLLY SVR HAIL. WRN-MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY CORRESPONDS
WELL TO BACK EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD
OF SFC COLD FRONT. RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA
MAY RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SVR POTENTIAL TO SHIFT NEWD INTO AREAS N OF
WW. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GRADUAL LOWERING WITH TIME
OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW BASE TO NEAR SFC AS BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE
ADVECTION CONTINUES.

AS OF 14Z...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MAIN SFC LOW INVOF NC/VA STATE
LINE NE GSO...COLD FRONT SWD NEAR CAE...AMG. MESOLOW WAS EVIDENT
JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER NC/SC BORDER NE FLO AND ALONG WRN
CONVECTIVE BAND. STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WAS EVIDENT JUST
AHEAD OF MESOLOW ACROSS NERN SC AND S-CENTRAL/SERN NC. THIS ZONE OF
PRESSURE FALLS...ASSOCIATED BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF SFC WINDS AND
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN SC
DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...60-70 KT LLJ WILL SHIFT EWD
OVER REGION. RESULTING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE
FAVORABLE...E.G. 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 500 J/KG IN LATEST LTX/MHX
VWPS AND IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE HODOGRAPHS
CHARACTERIZING INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS...ANY LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE RISK OF TORNADOES.

.EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

32498082 33258033 33518026 35017926 35787873 36467827
36997746 37037628 36917600 36247578 35597545 35217552
35207570 35047608 34567654 34697665 34637706 34387756
34177782 33837797 33907817 33837868 33407913 33147920
32518025

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