SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150627
FLZ000-150830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN FL...AND THE CNTRL FL PEN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 150627Z - 150830Z
ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR/JUST INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA THROUGH DAYBREAK. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH.
THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...A NARROW TONGUE OF 75F+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS JUST
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. ENHANCED INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PROBABLY IS THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO
ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS IS OCCURRING ALONG A 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...WHERE LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ARE SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. WHILE MOST
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS HAS SPREAD INLAND.
THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH
SUPERCELLS PROGRESSING INLAND...THOUGH TENDENCY MAY BE FOR CELLS TO
WEAKEN INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL ADVANCE INTO
TALLAHASSEE AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY 07-08Z...AND BROKEN
LINE OF SUPERCELLS TO THE SOUTH WILL APPROACH FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEAR TAMPA FROM 08-12Z.
.KERR.. 04/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
27168593 28198601 28678590 29688496 30328375 30298271
29688200 28838233 27998274 27258404
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