SWODY1
SPC AC 011252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. THE ERN SYSTEM LIKELY WILL REACH MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE LATE THIS EVE AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW OVER THE
LWR OH VLY TURNS E TOWARD THE VA/NC CST.
AT THE SFC...TAIL END OF LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE
THAT CROSSED THE MID ATLANTIC REGION YESTERDAY IS WEAKENING ATTM
OVER ERN NC. THE BOUNDARY...AND LEE TROUGH...SHOULD REDEVELOP W
INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SE VA LATER TODAY AS OH VLY
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES EWD.
...ERN CAROLINAS TO SRN DELMARVA...
SFC...GPS...AND SATELLITE-DERIVED MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW AMPLE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA TO SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION. OBSERVED WINDS SUGGEST THAT AFOREMENTIONED WWD
REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC FRONT ALREADY MAY BE OCCURRING OVER CNTRL NC.
COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD/ASCENT WITH
APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE...AND OPTIMALLY-TIMED SFC HEATING WILL
CREATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS OVER ERN
NC AND SE VA LATER TODAY.
STORMS SHOULD FORM PRIMARILY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LEE
TROUGH THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY FORM ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE CST. WITH LOW TO MID 60S F SFC
DEWPOINTS AND SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LIKELY BENEATH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SETUP WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ...WITH 1500 TO
PERHAPS 2000 J/KG SBCAPE. AT THE SAME TIME...50+ KT WSWLY MID LVL
FLOW WILL YIELD AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS/ SUSTAINED MULTICELL
BANDS. MODEST DEGREE OF VEERING WITH HEIGHT FURTHER SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPLITTING CELLS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS. THE SVR THREAT
SHOULD END AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY TONIGHT.
...NEW ENG...
NRN PART OF LEAD COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENE FROM FAR
ERN NY INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENG TODAY. CLOUDS AND EXISTING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIMIT LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. BUT COMBINATION
OF WEAK SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/...COOL MID
LVL TEMPERATURES...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE/DEEPENING UPR TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF LOW-TOPPED AFTN/EVE STORMS. HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/01/2008
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