SWOD48
SPC AC 010848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DIG
INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND...WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE STRENGTH AND MANNER IN WHICH THIS
OCCURS HAS BEEN A POINT OF VARIABILITY...AND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE BLOCK EVOLVING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM...OVER CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
THE QUALITY OF THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...IS STILL IN QUESTION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ONLY A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS INITIAL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OUT
INTO THE PLAINS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE NEGATIVE
OR STABILIZING INFLUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN
PACIFIC...THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE OUTBREAK LATE THIS
WEEKEND APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
THEREAFTER...THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS
STILL UNCLEAR...DUE TO THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE LARGE-SCALE
FLOW.
..KERR.. 10/01/2008
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