SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011628
NCZ000-VAZ000-011900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...E NC AND SE VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011628Z - 011900Z
H5 CHART AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A HEALTHY JET STREAK
/MID-LVL HEIGHT FALLS 90 METERS AT KILN/ DIGGING INTO THE LWR OH/TN
VLYS AT LATE MORNING ALONG THE BASE OF THE GRTLKS UPR TROUGH. THE
IMPULSE WILL SPREAD ESE INTO VA AND NC BY MID-AFTN.
READJUSTMENTS OF THE MASS FIELDS WERE OCCURRING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. OLD FRONT THAT SETTLED SWD INTO NC LAST
NIGHT HAS DISSOLVED WITH REDEVELOPMENT FARTHER W IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE 15Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB LOW INVOF KFAY WITH A N-S
ORIENTED LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E SC INTO E VA. THE NEW COLD
FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO SURGE SEWD IN THE KRDU METRO AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF WRN NC WITH THE APCH OF THE UPR IMPULSE.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...VSBL SATL SHOWS EVIDENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MARKED BY DISSOLVING STRATUS
FIELD...SURGING NWD INTO ECNTRL NC ATTM. MID-UPR 60S F SFC DEW
POINTS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AND/OR TRANSPORTED NWD TOWARD EXTREME SE
VA INTO THIS AFTN. THOUGH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY LESS
THAN 6 C PER KM...SOME STEEPENING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN OWING TO THE
APCH OF COOLER MID-LVL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF THE
SFC. AFTN MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY OVER ERN NC AND
1000-1500 J/KG OVER EXTREME SE VA.
TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTN. FIRST STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY 18Z ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS EC/NERN NC
AND EXTREME SE VA. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP 18-21Z FARTHER S AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW/FRONT FROM SE NC NEWD INTO ECNTRL NC/OUTER BANKS.
ROUGHLY 45-50 KTS OF WSW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL BANDS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS. THOUGH WEAK LOW-LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST...THREAT FOR
ISOLD TORNADOES WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY VCNTY THE SFC LOW TRACK
FROM SCNTRL-ECNTRL NC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..RACY.. 10/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
33837835 34717935 36457775 37147681 37107560 35187535
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