SWODY1
SPC AC 011607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2008
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC TO SRN DELMARVA
PENINSULA...
...ERN NC AND SRN DELMARVA...
VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES EWD
FROM OH VALLEY ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 06Z. A
RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SWWD THRU
NC PIEDMONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT MORE MOIST WITH EWD EXTENT TO THE COAST
WHERE MID 60S TDS PREVAIL. WHILE 500MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY
COOL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6-6.5 C/KM. HOWEVER AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO 80F...THE COMBINATION OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...40-50KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SUFFICIENT VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF FRONT/LEE TROUGH FOR SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY COASTAL COUNTIES NC AND SERN VA. WHILE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
SHEAR...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY SUPERCELL THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
REF SWOMCD #2302
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE ARE IN PLACE ATTM OVER RI/SERN
MA FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AM. SUPERCELL
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO ERN MA/RI WHERE SBCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED. PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AREA WILL BE
HAIL...BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COMBINATION OF STRONG ASCENT WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO
MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
VT/NH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
..HALES/SMITH.. 10/01/2008
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