SWODY1
SPC AC 020051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2008
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS DOMINATED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN W AND TROUGHING IN E...AND TROUGH OVER NERN PACIFIC.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ERN GREAT LAKES -- IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH
BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED AT
23Z FROM CT SWWD ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS TO NC COSTAL SOUNDS...THEN
SWWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN GA -- SHOULD MOVE WELL OFFSHORE
MID-ATLANTIC AND TIDEWATER AREAS...TRAILING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
...COASTAL NC/VA...
TSTMS MOVING OFFSHORE OUTER BANKS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING FROM COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW...POSTFRONTAL
CAA AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING...THEREBY CONCLUDING SVR THREAT ACROSS
REGION. ISOLATED TSTMS STILL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS...WHERE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT SUPERIMPOSES WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
THETAE AT OR ABOVE SFC TO YIELD WEAK CAPE. THUNDER POTENTIAL
GENERALLY WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES FROM
COMBINATION OF DIABATIC COOLING AND BOUNDARY LAYER CAA THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING.
...WRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS BROAD SWATH
OF ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...BECAUSE
OF COMBINED STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND RAPID
DIABATIC SFC COOLING OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
..EDWARDS.. 10/02/2008
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