Thursday, September 20, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210044
SWODY1
SPC AC 210042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2012

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN KS/NERN OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR...

00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR INTO SRN
MO ARE NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST/UNSTABLE THIS EVENING. SAMPLING SITES
AT AMA/OUN/SGF ARE AOB .75 INCH PW...ALTHOUGH FWD/LZK ARE AOA ONE
INCH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT RESIDES ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR AND THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIFTED ATOP THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT WHERE
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT HAIL MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS IF ROBUST TSTMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

...FL...

SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DARROW.. 09/21/2012

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