DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101723
SWODY2
SPC AC 101721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS AR AND MO DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL FALL BUT A CONSOLIDATED
SURFACE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO DEVELOP. NEITHER WILL THERE BE A
STRONG COLD FRONT...BUT SUBTLE CONFLUENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WARM SECTOR. BROAD SWLY 850 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT
WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE RAPIDLY NWD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOWER 60S INTO CNTRL AR BY AFTERNOON.

...ARKLATEX INTO THE OZARKS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH
OF ERN TX...OK...KS...SWRN MO AND WRN AR SUN MORNING AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NWD IN THE WARM CONVEYOR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP NEWD...THE WRN EDGE OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHARPEN AND CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH INCREASING INTENSITY WITH TIME....BEGINNING
OVER FAR ERN OK AND NERN TX.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER AR WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
EXCEEDING 50 KT BY 00Z. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND SMOOTH IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. MAIN
MITIGATING FACTORS TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT ARE SUBTLE WARM
SECTOR FORCING...ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LEVELS
OF INSTABILITY...AT LEAST FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

WITH NO CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS BY
AFTERNOON...SW-NE ORIENTED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY ALSO FORM
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.

SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...HAVE ADDED A SMALL 30 PERCENT AREA
ACROSS CNTRL AR. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 03/10/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.