ACUS48 KWNS 040855
SWOD48
SPC AC 040855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE OCCUR DURING THE D4-D6
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM AN ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE TO A LARGE WRN
TROUGH. COOL AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH D5...WITH MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING
ON FRI/D6 ACROSS THE PLAINS WHEN THE WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THIS
TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT/D7...BUT THE ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER N
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH ENERGY. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE SOME
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FROM KS INTO IA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY
IS IN QUESTION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S F THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO PRODUCING MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR.
BY SUN/D8...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED...WITH
STORMS MORE NUMEROUS ALONG IT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE EVEN
WEAKER THAN ON THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A LINEAR MODE.
..JEWELL.. 11/04/2012
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