MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0848

ACUS11 KWNS 200801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200800
OKZ000-200930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 200800Z - 200930Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN...INCLUDING RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR...ACROSS A NARROW
W-E CORRIDOR IN CNTRL OK.

DISCUSSION...WAA NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED BOUNDARY LYING
ACROSS SRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE BACKBUILDING
WITHIN A 35-MILE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM KIOWA COUNTY EWD THROUGH
GRADY/CLEVELAND COUNTIES AND FARTHER EAST INTO OKFUSKEE/HUGHES
COUNTIES. THE STRONG WAA PATTERN IS REVEALED BY FREDERICK OK VWP
DATA...WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY VEERING FROM SELY TO WLY FROM THE SFC TO
3 KM...WITH A NOTABLE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MAX OF SSWLY AT
40 KT AROUND 1 KM AGL. SLOPED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ATOP THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE TRAINING FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...AS MESO-BETA ELEMENTS ARE STEERED EWD/ENEWD BY 20-35
KT OF CLOUD-LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
COLUMNAR SATURATION/LOW LCLS -- OWING TO EARLY CONVECTION -- WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AMIDST PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.2
INCHES PER GPS DATA. RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE OF CONCERN AS
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DIMINISH/SHIFT SEWD AFTER 10Z...AS A DEEPER
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN/N-CNTRL OK UNDERCUTS ONGOING
CONVECTION WHILE MOVING SEWD.

..COHEN.. 05/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35419606 35219610 34989675 34879772 34829880 34919903
35199883 35339805 35319747 35539637 35419606

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