ACUS02 KWNS 171718
SWODY2
SPC AC 171717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2012
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF AK THIS
PERIOD...WHILE A LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO WRN
CANADA AND THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...A SMALLER/WEAK
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC. OVERALL...THE UPPER FLOW FIELD IS THUS FORECAST TO
DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE SERN UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SHOWERS AND A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES MAY AFFECT ERN FL AND THE IMMEDIATE SERN U.S.
COASTAL AREAS. MOST LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE HOWEVER --
WITH LESS THAN 10% ONSHORE COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.
FARTHER W...SHOWERS AND A FEW OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY OCCUR OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ADVANCING/WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN SPARSE.
AS LEE TROUGHING EVOLVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO WLY
FLOW...WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WLYS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT QG ASCENT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES -- PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASE FURTHER ENHANCING QG ASCENT.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS APPARENT ACROSS A RANGE OF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ASIDE FROM THE MORE BULLISH NAM-BASED
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE -- WHILE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST --
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING COVERAGE TO EXCEED 10% ACROSS THIS BROAD
AREA APPEARS LOW ATTM...AND THUS WILL REMOVE AREAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS
FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 11/17/2012
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