DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060854
SWOD48
SPC AC 060854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS FARTHER WEST FROM THE
SRN THROUGH NRN ROCKIES. A FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NERN STATES WILL ADVANCE PROGRESSIVELY SWD...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE SERN U.S. DAY 5...WHILE WRN PORTION LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY FROM SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES
EARLY IN 4-8 PERIOD...BUT WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

FARTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY DAY 5-6...AND POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD
EWD INTO THE PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE
NORTH OF WARM FRONT. MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL EXIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...AND A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON
TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE
AN ENHANCED SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.

..DIAL.. 08/06/2013

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