MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1635

ACUS11 KWNS 061008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061007
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-061130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...

VALID 061007Z - 061130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NERN NEB
AND MAY REACH WRN IA LATER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL LINE-SEGMENTS ARE ONGOING FROM NEAR THE SD-NEB
LINE NEAR VALENTINE ESEWD TO NEAR NORFOLK. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
ALONG A SHARP GRADIENT IN INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS IS
ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NEB AT DAYBREAK SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WET DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FASTER MOVING STORMS. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...850
TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 8.0 C/KM WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL PRODUCTION WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CORES.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43289858 43349974 42860079 41239992 40469691 40729558
41219515 41659513 42199582 42739724 43289858

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