DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061303
SWODY1
SPC AC 061301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS NEWD INTO
THE MID AND UPR MS VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER OVER NE MB THIS PERIOD AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ON ITS SW FLANK...NOW OVER MT/ND...TRACKS ESE
WITHIN SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS
VLY/UPR GRT LKS. FARTHER S...A SEPARATE BAND OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED W
TO WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE CNTRL PLNS INTO MO AND THE LWR OH
VLY...ON NRN FRINGE OF STNRY RIDGE OVER TX AND THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...A VORT MAX WILL TRACK SLOWLY N ACROSS AZ...AHEAD
OF A LOW/TROUGH EDGING E TOWARD THE CA CST.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING ND FROM S CNTRL
CANADA...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO BE GENERATED FROM STORMS
THAT FORM LATER TODAY...SFC FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT ADVANCES E/SE ACROSS THE
NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

POCKETS OF ENHANCED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE N CNTRL STATES...AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS FARTHER S...SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN CENTERS
FOR STRONG TO SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY WED AS MT/ND
IMPULSE CONTINUES ESEWD.

...CNTRL PLNS INTO MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
MDT WNW MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLNS WILL MAINTAIN
DEEP EML ACROSS MUCH OF SD...NEB...WRN IA...AND KS TODAY...WHERE
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
SE-ADVANCING COLD FRONT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80/. THE
GREATEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000
J/KG...SHOULD OCCUR OVER CNTRL/SRN NEB AND NRN KS...S OF
MORNING STORMS IN NEB AND W OF MCS NOW WEAKENING IN MO. GIVEN DEGREE
OF BUOYANCY AND PRESENCE OF 25-30 KT 700-500 MB FLOW...SFC HEATING
COULD YIELD CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
SVR WIND AND HAIL.

FARTHER N...LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BE MORE LIMITED
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE IN ERN SD/MN.
NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF EVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
FRONTAL UPLIFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY PROGRESSIVE UPR
IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF STORMS BY MID AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD INTO MN...IA...AND WI BY
EVE. 50 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR BENEATH AXIS OF MAIN UPR JET SUGGESTS A
GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE LOW-LVL PATTERN FURTHER
SUGGESTS THAT MULTIPLE SE-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE...WITH
ATTENDANT BOWING SEGMENTS EXTENDING A RISK FOR SVR WIND EWD INTO THE
UPR MIDWEST LATER IN THE EVE.

FARTHER SW...OTHER STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTN AND EVE
INVOF LEE TROUGH AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN WRN KS...AND
PERHAPS IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN CO. STRONG LOW-LVL BUOYANCY
AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT MOVE/DEVELOP
PREFERENTIALLY E/ENE INTO MO AND THE MID-MS VLY LATER TNGT/EARLY WED
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LLJ AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.

...OZARKS/LWR MS VLY TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN...
RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SFC HEATING TODAY IN
AXIS OF HIGH PW /AOA 2 INCHES/ EXTENDING SE FROM ON-GOING MCS NOW
CENTERED IN SE MO. A FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE...WITH AN
A RISK FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 08/06/2013

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