MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1633

ACUS11 KWNS 060605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060604
ARZ000-MOZ000-060730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO...NRN AND CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471...

VALID 060604Z - 060730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 471
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS IN SE KS...MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 471.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAR SE KS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SW MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF
THE MCS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL AR WHERE MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SFC DEWPOINTS IN CNTRL AND NRN AR
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.00 TO
2.25 INCH RANGE. THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENABLE THE MCS TO
MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS
MUCH OF AR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING WITH THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36299378 35629317 35079247 34559200 34479132 34899099
35519109 36089162 36769204 37199237 37639273 37729308
37689340 37489371 37059382 36299378

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