SWODY2
SPC AC 050527
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST WED FEB 04 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MORE ACTIVE/DYNAMIC WEATHER REGIME WILL COMMENCE ALONG THE WEST
COAST TODAY AND THEN EXPAND INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. FIRST...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING AROUND
130W OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT
NEWD/INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE START OF THE DAY2
PERIOD/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEADING DISTURBANCE WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED ON THE WEST COAST BY ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATL IMAGERY APPROACHING 140W. THIS
SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND LEAD TO 60-90M 12H 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG ASCENT ACROSS SRN CA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WHILE COLD AIR MASS
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL MODIFICATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG.
...CNTRL/SRN CA COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 250 J PER
KG/ ALONG THE CA COAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION AND MOISTENING WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT
REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER OROGRAPHIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITHIN REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY LESSENING STATIC STABILITY
AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
SMALL HAIL FROM A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER/PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
CELLS. HOWEVER...GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL /-26C AT 500MB/ IS FORECAST TO LAG THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS AND GENERALLY
WEAK CAPE SHOULD KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY TSTMS
QUITE LOW.
..CARBIN.. 02/05/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment