DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050637
SWODY3
SPC AC 050634

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE WEST
COAST AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WILL FALL AND A WARM
FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS THIS
STRONG SYSTEM TRAVELS EAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...AND ANOTHER HIGH CENTER WILL REMAINED ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

...AZ...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM PARTS OF SRN CA INTO WRN
AND SRN AZ ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS THESE AREAS. NAM AND GFS FCSTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA WILL EXIST
WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED 80-100KT JET
AS IT PRECEDES THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER ACROSS AZ THROUGH THE DAY.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-26C AT 500MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/LOW STATIC STABILITY WITH DYNAMIC AND LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC FORCING SUSTAINING TSTM POTENTIAL WITHIN LARGER AREA OF
RAIN AND CLOUDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUCH A REGIME COULD BRIEFLY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE/ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH HAIL
AND/OR WIND. THIS POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE OVER SRN AZ/NRN GULF OF CA
AREA WHERE MARGINALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST EFFECTIVE CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR.

CURRENTLY...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SREF OUTPUT INDICATE
THAT CAPE WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK AND STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WILL
LIKELY BE INHIBITED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP AND/OR COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...FORECAST TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SEVERE STORMS COULD BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

..CARBIN.. 02/05/2009

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