SWODY1
SPC AC 051612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST THU FEB 05 2009
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST...
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS PAIR OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 32N/125W AND 39N/127W RESPECTIVELY. SRN
IMPULSE AND STRONGEST JET MAX WILL DRIVE EWD ACROSS SRN CA TODAY AS
IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE. NRN IMPULSE WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN CA COAST WHILE BROADER MID LEVEL COLD POCKET/TROUGH
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF CA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CLOUD BAND EVOLVING ALONG E SIDE OF IMPULSE OFF
THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL/NRN CA TODAY. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY EXPAND ALONG MUCH OF THE
SRN CA COAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS MAY OCCUR ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF
TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER REGION...ESPECIALLY
FROM LAX NWD. COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH IN CENTRAL CA...AND VORT MAX APPROACHING THE SRN
COAST...SETUP LIKELY WILL YIELD SHALLOW/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...DESPITE STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT AND MID LEVEL
CAA. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TO ASSIST
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ONSHORE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED GIVEN MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW
FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL WITH
STRONGER CORES.
..EVANS.. 02/05/2009
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