SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291724
NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-291900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...ERN WY AND FAR NE CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291724Z - 291900Z
A HAIL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE MT...ERN WY AND FAR NE CO THIS
AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN WY AND
NRN CO EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC
LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS THE
MD AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
RUC ANALYSIS AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 4 TO 5 KM AS EVIDENT ON
THE SRN WYOMING PROFILER SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST STRONG MIXING WILL OCCUR AND THIS WILL DRY THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH TIME PUTTING A HAMPER ON DESTABILIZATION. AS A
RESULT...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL. THE RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO MAKE STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
41170504 42070623 43890644 45090678 46070638 46230565
45960476 44760456 43550468 42700432 41620297 40440284
40230433
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