SWODY2
SPC AC 290550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA/MO/ERN KS EWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD...AS A BROAD ZONE
OF FAST WSWLY FLOW DEVELOPS FROM CA ENEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WITHIN THIS FAST WSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A NW TO SE-ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- MOST
LIKELY FROM IA/NRN MO/IL NWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION --
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WSWLY
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THIS CONVECTION WEAKENS/SHIFTS EWD
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE JET WEAKENS/VEERS...NEWD-ADVECTION OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE SURFACE FRONT BENEATH THE ENEWD
ADVECTION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. STORM REDEVELOPMENT
IS FORECAST BY MID-AFTERNOON INVOF SEWD-MOVING FRONT...INITIALLY
FROM MO NEWD ACROSS IA/IL AND INTO WI...WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
THEN SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD/VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON -- BOTH NEAR THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY INVOF REMNANT
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES.
ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED...VERY
STRONG/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTION FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...STORM MODE SHOULD TREND
TOWARD SMALL-SCALE LINES AND BOWS WITH TIME. AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO
RAPIDLY-MOVING CLUSTERS/MCS...INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WHICH SHOULD
INCLUDE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD
EVOLVE TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS ONE OR MORE
MCS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
COOL AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
SEWD. WITH MODEST NWLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT...CLUSTERS OF SEWD-MOVING
STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL/LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS. ANY
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
..GOSS.. 05/29/2008
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