SWODY3
SPC AC 290732
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM PARTS
OF KS/OK EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS
PERIOD...AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD EXPANDS EWD/SEWD WITH TIME...AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EWD
INTO TOWARD THE PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...A SECOND/LARGE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE W COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WITH TIME...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKES EWD PROGRESS
INTO NEW ENGLAND BUT LINGERS MORE W-E ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION
AND INTO OK/THE TX PANHANDLE.
...THE NORTHEAST SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS/WWD ACROSS THE TN/OH/MID MS
VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF KS/OK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG
THIS FRONT...EXPANDING WWD THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD KS/OK AS DAYTIME
HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION INVOF THE REMNANT
FRONT FROM THE MS VALLEY WWD. WITH BELT OF MODERATE WNWLY FLOW AT
MID-LEVELS ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND THREAT ARE ANTICIPATED.
SEVERE THREAT FURTHER E INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION REMAINS MORE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...AS ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...WITH STRONG WLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN FORM WOULD
POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...A LEE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED. STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH VEERING/INCREASING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT TO 50 TO 60 KT AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE POCKETS OF MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL/WIND
THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 15%
PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST THIS PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...AND ALLOW REFINEMENT TO OCCUR IN LATER FORECASTS.
..GOSS.. 05/29/2008
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