SWOD48
SPC AC 290849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...BUT STILL DIFFERENT ENOUGH -- PARTICULARLY FROM DAY 6 AND
BEYOND -- TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO HIGHLIGHTING SEVERE
THREAT AREAS.
FOR DAY 4 /SUN. JUN. 1/...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS ATTM
TO EXIST FROM THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF KS AND
OK...INVOF REMNANT FRONT EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION ACROSS THE KS/OK VICINITY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALOFT...SOME QUESTION
WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THREAT PRECLUDES ISSUING A
DAY 4 AREA ATTM.
DAY 5...MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN/DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...AS
SEVERAL SMALL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES EJECT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT THEREFORE APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN A BROAD
ZONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES MAKE TIMING...LOCATION...AND DEGREE OF
SEVERE THREAT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM.
LOCATIONS OF THE MAIN FEATURES -- BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --
FROM DAY 6 AND BEYOND BEGIN TO DIFFER MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF...AND ALSO WITHIN THE NCEP MREF AS INDICATED BY
STANDARD DEVIATION FIELDS...THUS PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
THREAT AREAS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 05/29/2008
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