SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291844
NEZ000-KSZ000-291945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL NEB...NW KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291844Z - 291945Z
A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STORMS INITIATE AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO APPEAR LIKELY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISSUANCE LIKELY BY 20Z.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW OVER ERN CO WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CUMULUS IS FORMING OVER ERN CO AND THE CUMULUS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SW
NEB AND NW KS WITH STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY. SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR ON REGIONAL PROFILERS ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST EAST OF
THE MCD AREA SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL
AND SRN NEB.
..BROYLES.. 05/29/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
42380028 41950109 40840113 39710111 39220056 39639906
41999947
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