DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070058
SWODY1
SPC AC 070055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER OH AND UPPER TN RIVER VALLEYS...
THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE SWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
E-CNTRL TN AS OF EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA/WV THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN
ADEQUATELY MOIST/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE REMAINING SEVERE THREAT TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO PERHAPS CAPABLE OF A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE
RISK.

...WRN NC AND WRN VA...
AS THE MIDWEST CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE-TILT AND PIVOTS TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...H85
FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN 35-50 KT IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE 06-12Z PERIOD. DESPITE AN INFLUX OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH /MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/...POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITHIN A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE...AND MAY RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR WEAK
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..SMITH/BROYLES.. 10/07/2013

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