Sunday, July 5, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1442

ACUS11 KWNS 051834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051833
MIZ000-052030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051833Z - 052030Z

A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL BORDERING ON SEVERE CRITERIA BUT A
WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN LOWER MI. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ALOFT. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...BUT GIVEN SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM LONGEVITY...SOME HAIL IS
LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43298566 43888469 45318331 44808295 43838233 42798231
42548250 42788340 43298566

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