SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052148
NDZ000-MTZ000-052245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052148Z - 052245Z
ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DUE TO ISOLD/MARGINAL
NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT...ROUGHLY POSITIONED NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SEWD TOWARDS
DICKINSON ND. RIDGING ALOFT MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF
STORMS...BUT A LEAD IMPULSE NOW TRAVERSING EWD INTO CNTRL MT AND
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. DESPITE FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY EXISTS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH VEERING WINDS
AND 35 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEFLY
ROTATING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. AS DESTABILIZATION
CONTINUES...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY REACH THE SURFACE AS THE CELLS
BEGIN TO COLLAPSE. BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...GIVEN FAVORABLY BACKED WINDS AND
ENHANCED BUOYANCY SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DUE TO ISOLD NATURE A
WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
..HURLBUT.. 07/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
LAT...LON 47490271 46740215 46470316 46920480 47620615 48250744
48780740 48950571 48430436 47490271
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