SWODY2
SPC AC 051729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS CNTRL MT...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES MONDAY WITH A LEE SFC TROUGH LOCATED FROM ERN WY SWD INTO
ERN CO AND ERN NM. AS SFC TEMPS WARM MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM WITH A
SLOW PROGRESSION EWD INTO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z MONDAY
FROM SE CO INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE SHOW A GRADUALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW ABOVE 500 MB. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
SUPERCELL OR TWO ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM
SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CLUSTER CAN PERSIST SEWD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING AS IS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL
SHORT-TERM MODELS.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MT MONDAY AS A
SFC LOW ORGANIZES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE CONVECTION
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CNTRL MT WHERE POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL
MT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WITH 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.
THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SEVERE HAIL-STORMS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY THREAT
SHOULD BE HAIL DUE MAINLY TO THE RELAVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN MT AND ND...MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LIMIT SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AND THE
RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...GULF COAST STATES/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
A VERY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
STATES WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ENEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
...NERN STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS SERN
CANADA MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT FURTHER WEST IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR
THE SFC TROUGH EARLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
..BROYLES.. 07/05/2009
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