SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281728
OHZ000-KYZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-281830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND/OH...CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN
AL/GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281728Z - 281830Z
SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FROM THE OH RIVER TO THE TN VALLEY AS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW AROUND 30 NW
EVV...WITH COLD FRONTAL SEGMENTS EXTENDING NEWD AND S/SWWD OF THIS
CYCLONE. CU/CB FIELD APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY AGITATED FROM THE OH
RIVER TO THE TN VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE MID-MS VALLEY. HI-RES AND OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. A
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE
EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE MAIN INITIAL THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING MORE
PREDOMINANT LATER ON.
..GRAMS.. 05/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...
LAT...LON 34638410 33988471 33928521 33918667 34278742 34848743
35828717 37298675 38008701 38818666 39558436 39608376
39518264 39348236 38908224 37518257 35768336 34988369
34638410
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