SWODY1
SPC AC 031607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2007
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LARGE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER MOST OF THE
NATION TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
GREAT BASIN...THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
..MN/UPPER MI/WI...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO
NORTHERN MN BY LATE TONIGHT. MORNING SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF SYSTEM SHOW
A STRONG CAP AND ONLY MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIKELY LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROVIDE
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN MN/WI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING.
..SOUTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW RATHER LARGE SURFACE
T-TD SPREADS FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. HOWEVER...POOR
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST WEAK UPDRAFTS...AND
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT TO VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS TOO
SPARSE FOR A PROBABILITY AREA.
..SOUTHEAST STATES...
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TODAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THESE REGIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
PARAMETERS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LOW.
.HART/JEWELL.. 09/03/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment