DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031953
SWODY1
SPC AC 031951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2007

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NRN MN INTO UPR MI AND NRN WI...
LOW AMPLITUDE WNWLY FLOW EXISTS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG CORE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE
BORDER REGION FROM EXTREME SRN PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA TO
LAKE SUPERIOR. AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN IS OCCURRING OVER THE
NWRN STATES WHERE RIDGING IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH PRIMARY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LOCATED NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAKS AND WARM ADVECTION LIFT ABOVE 850 MB WILL BE FOCUSED.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ESEWD ALONG THE NRN MN
BORDER SINCE THE MORNING...AND NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FORMING OVER NERN MN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RUC OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER OVER NWRN/N CNTRL MN SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.

PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL ENHANCE
STORM INTENSITY WITH A THREAT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP.
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE GIVEN DIFFERING SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY
NAM...GFS...AND RUC MODELS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS
TO PRODUCE HAIL AS ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD FROM NRN MN ACROSS PARTS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR/UPR MI AND NRN WI INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS WITH TIME WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL.

.WEISS.. 09/03/2007

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