Wednesday, September 23, 2009

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231717
SWODY2
SPC AC 231714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...
AS A CLOSED/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER JET EXIT REGION OVERSPREADS
THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...THE PRIMARY SURFACE FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT /MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING/ WILL LIKELY BE ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A WEAKENING/OCCLUDING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH MAINTENANCE OF COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT
ATTENDANT TO THE CLOSED UPPER LOW /-20C AT 500 MB/...AN AXIS OF 50S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE. WHILE AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE
RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR
HAIL ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MODEST BUOYANCY AND
STRONG/BUT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.

...MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS...
WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ALONG/EAST OF A
RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT. CLOUD/PRECIPITATION HINDERED SURFACE HEATING
AND WEAK LAPSE RATES/WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..GUYER.. 09/23/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: