SWODY1
SPC AC 310523
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS BY 12Z TODAY
WILL MOVE E REACHING THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY
01/00Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IN THE
WEST...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN-SRN CANADA
AND INTO THE NWRN STATES WILL CARVE OUT A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE
TROUGH BY 12Z TUESDAY EXTENDING FROM NRN NV/ORE TO CENTRAL CANADA.
...FL PENINSULA...
A SURFACE FRONT SITUATED ACROSS FAR S FL WILL MOVE NWD TODAY...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL-SERN
FL COASTAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE OH/TN
VALLEYS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SERN STATES. DESPITE RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH THE GREATEST VALUES
EXPECTED ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND PRECLUDE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
...UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SWD THROUGH IND TO THE MID
SOUTH AND E TX AT 12Z TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDERGO A WEAKENING
TREND AS IT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SURFACE HEATING
BENEATH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF GREATER INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN LOWER
MI...ERN IND...NRN KY AND MUCH OF OH. WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES
PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS DIURNAL ACTIVITY.
...FAR ERN NC AND FAR SERN VA...
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH APPROACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW LEVEL WAA INTO ERN NC/SERN VA ALONG THE
W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW...COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT WSWLY MIDLEVEL JET
SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
..PETERS/COHEN.. 10/31/2011
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