SWODY2
SPC AC 311630
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER BEFORE TRACKING NEWD TOWARDS JAMES
BAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO CNTRL PLAINS BY TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EFFECTIVELY AMPLIFY
A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...REACHING THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY
EARLY WED. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BECOME CENTERED INVOF THE OK
PANHANDLE TUE EVENING ON TRAILING PORTION OF THE PLAINS FRONT.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE MEAGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS LIKELY ONLY REACHING
INTO THE 40S TUE EVENING/NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING EWD OVERNIGHT.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED IN BOTH AMPLITUDE /AOB 250 J PER KG/ AND SPATIAL EXTENT
/CENTERED OVER NRN KS AND SRN NEB/. SETUP SHOULD YIELD A FEW
ELEVATED TSTMS MAINLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME TUE NIGHT.
..GRAMS.. 10/31/2011
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