DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311244
SWODY1
SPC AC 311242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS
SEWD TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO MID
ATLANTIC COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER S FL
WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT TO OFF THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.
MORE ROBUST CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES WITH ARRIVAL OF ABOVE-MENTIONED JET STREAK AND MIDLEVEL
TROUGH.

...FL...

ERN SEGMENT OF WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM S OF APF-VRB MAY STILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW. AREA VAD DATA AND 12Z MFL SOUNDING INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WHICH IS COLOCATED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS FOSTERED A
NUMBER OF QUASI-STATIONARY ROTATING STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...
NAMELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE E-CNTRL AND SERN PENINSULA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 18Z WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD BEGINS TO VEER
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS SUCH...A
LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUST WILL EXIST THIS MORNING.

...ERN NC AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT INVOF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF
MIDLEVEL TROUGH. GREATER INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF A
DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST LIGHTNING THREAT.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 10/31/2011

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