SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310709
FLZ000-310945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT MON OCT 31 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE FL.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 310709Z - 310945Z
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER SERN FL AND KEYS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION/INTENSITY
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NWD ALONG E COAST FROM NERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
THROUGH FLL-PBI AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
INTERMITTENT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTER...ESPECIALLY INVOF FRONTAL ZONE
AS OUTLINED BELOW. BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND
DOWNDRAFT PRECIP LOADING MAY YIELD LOCALLY STG GUSTS. HOWEVER
THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/ISOLATED FOR WW.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS REGIONAL SEGMENT OF SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE
DRIFTING NWD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AS WARM FRONT.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IF WEAK MESOLOW DEVELOPS ALONG
FRONT WITHIN EYW-APF-MIA TRIANGLE BEFORE 12Z. SUBTLE FRONTAL-WAVE
DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO VARIOUS EXTENTS BY OPERATIONAL
NAM/RUC/SPECTRAL IN RESPONSE TO APCH OF SRN FRINGES OF TROUGHING NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
N-CENTRAL GULF. GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR FRONT
WHERE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY BACKED...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST
INLAND FROM COAST...WHERE FRICTIONAL SFC REDUCTIONS ELONGATE 0-1 KM
AGL SHEAR VECTORS. 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN FCST
SOUNDINGS IN MIA-PBI CORRIDOR. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL
FLOW...BACKED NEAR-SFC WINDS ALSO MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR COASTAL FRONTAL SEGMENT. GREATEST
BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN S OF FRONT AND OVER ATLANTIC/STRAITS WATERS
WHERE MARINE HEAT FLUXES DOMINATE. MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE FROM
AROUND 250 J/KG JUST N OF FRONT TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER STRAITS/FL
BAY/GLADES N OF SRN CONVECTIVE AREA.
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY 2-4 INCHES/HOUR ALSO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...PER REASONING OFFERED IN
EARLIER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR THIS REGIME.
..EDWARDS.. 10/31/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...
LAT...LON 25898063 26148037 26768025 27058009 26768002 26378007
25888011 25648017 25738022 25618028 25898063
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