SWODY3
SPC AC 130729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...LOWER MO VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
RELATIVELY FAST/LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX...WHICH SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...MAY AMPLIFY TO A DEGREE AS IT STEADILY PROGRESSES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. UNKNOWNS AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...MAINLY REGARDING THE EXTENT
OF EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS...PROVIDES SOME SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXTENT OF THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/ADVANCING SPEED MAX...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY
NEAR A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT/AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS
WOULD PERHAPS INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEB/EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO. WITH A FAVORABLE
COLLOCATION OF AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR/MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. SOME TORNADO THREAT COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD /EAST/ OF THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY...PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.
ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND
RISK...MAY FORM WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT/PERHAPS PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF OK/NORTHWEST TX BY EARLY EVENING.
..GUYER.. 09/13/2010
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