MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1816

ACUS11 KWNS 131651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131651
NYZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NE PA...NRN NJ...WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131651Z - 131815Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN
CNTRL AND NRN NY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ADIRONDACK MTNS
OF NRN NY AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST BETWEEN BINGHAMTON AND SYRACUSE.
THIS CONVECTION IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
ACTIVITY IN SRN NY IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE INTENSE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SERN NY WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING. IN
ADDITION...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 65 TO 75 MID-LEVEL JET IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE MCD AREA WHICH
WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFT AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -17C TO -19C RANGE
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS EVIDENT ON THE ALBANY WSR-88D VWP WILL ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE
INTENSE LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 09/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 40617359 40687518 41247661 41987693 42757668 43197616
43817484 43937362 43587293 43057266 42447265 41587280
40617359

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