SWODY2
SPC AC 131716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS
OVER THE ERN AND WRN STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. MESOSCALE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
REGIME WILL MODULATE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL RESIDE FROM WI SEWD THROUGH NEB INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY AND KY. LEE TROUGH OR DRY-LINE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN
THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION.
...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...
AXIS OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN CNTRL PLAINS WARM SECTOR BENEATH PLUME OF EWD ADVECTING
STEEPER LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE DAY. MCS WILL BE
ONGOING TUESDAY FROM ERN NEB INTO IA WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
RESULTING FROM SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH WNW-ESE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SUBSIDES AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A LESS
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING STORMS
WILL ACT TO REINFORCE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEB INTO NRN KS. IN WAKE
OF LEAD IMPULSE...WEAK FORCING...RIDGING ALOFT AND LIKELIHOOD OF A
CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EWD THE ADVECTING EML WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF DAY. STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG DIABATIC
WARMING AND DEEPER MIXING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SPREAD EWD. OTHER
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
JET FROM NRN KS INTO NEB. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS...BUT ACTIVITY COULD GROW UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
..DIAL.. 09/13/2010
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