SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132003
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-132130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...SE NY...NE PA...NRN NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655...
VALID 132003Z - 132130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655
CONTINUES.
A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WW 655. THE THREATS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE WATCH AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NEW
YORK CITY AREA AROUND 22Z TO 23Z.
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SE NY AND NE PA
ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ANALYZED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND VERY
NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED VERY NEAR THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND AIDING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT...THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED DISCRETE. THIS FACTOR ALONG COLD AIR ALOFT AND 50 KT OF 0-6
KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE ALBANY WSR-88D VWP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS CAN BECOME MORE LINEAR.
..BROYLES.. 09/13/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 41147102 40527343 40257515 40987671 41927717 42587661
43427513 43387241 42307087 41147102
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