Thursday, October 21, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220045
SWODY1
SPC AC 220043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...

CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING IN LINE
WITH EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE IN THAT AN MCS IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN
AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LLJ SHIFTS
TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING SOUTH
OF I-20...IT/S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE/PROBABLE THAT CONVECTION WILL
STRUGGLE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER PLAINS NEAR LBB THAT WILL
THEN FEED INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS. WITH THE
ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
IS DWINDLING AND THE PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTI-CELLULAR IN
NATURE. LARGE HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 10/22/2010

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