SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212145
NMZ000-AZZ000-212315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212145Z - 212315Z
THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NWRN
NM THROUGH AROUND 01Z. A WW IS UNLIKELY FOR THIS AREA.
21Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SFC PRESSURE TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS INTO W CNTRL NM. THIS HAS ALLOWED MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ON S/SELY SFC WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECOMING WIDESPREAD. FARTHER TO THE W...AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING EWD FROM AZ INTO WRN NM RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NWRN NM. INTENSE UPDARAFTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED OVER LONG PERIODS OF TIME GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP
LAYER FLOW /BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KT/. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AROUND 7.5 C/KM MAY RESULT IN SMALL
HAIL. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 10/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...
LAT...LON 36650909 36940779 36820632 36580563 36250508 35770485
35280497 34840556 34520632 34730690 35070753 35200829
35380891 35790926 36200922 36650909
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