SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301813
LAZ000-TXZ000-301945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST...SW LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301813Z - 301945Z
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TX COAST INTO SW LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SE TX
AND SW LA THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM SW LA SWWD ALONG
THE TX COAST. THE WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST SHOW 0-1 KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KT WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TO
THE WEST BRINGING THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS FURTHER INLAND. IN
ADDITION...INSTABILITY MAY ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS AS SFC
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. THESE TWO FACTORS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF ALEX.
..BROYLES.. 06/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...
LAT...LON 28489642 28519662 28619672 28769679 29069662 29889540
30279447 30439359 30379282 30179236 29839232 29669250
29669291 29679383 28919541 28559598 28489642
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