Wednesday, June 30, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1168

ACUS11 KWNS 302155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302154
MTZ000-WYZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...EXTREME N CNTRL WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 302154Z - 302300Z

AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED
OVER SERN MT AND INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY WY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SWRN MT/ERN ID WILL EJECT NEWD INTO CNTRL
MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE OVER SRN WY
/EVIDENT ON VAPOR IMAGERY/ APPEARS TO BE TRIGGERING NEW CONVECTION
ACROSS N CNTRL/NERN WY. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BIG HORN MTNS
IN WY...AND INTO S CNTRL MT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FARTHER
EWD WHERE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40-50 KTS...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
/CHARACTERIZED BY SFC T-TD SPREADS OF AROUND 30 DEG F PER 22Z OBS/
SHOULD ALSO WARRANT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

..ROGERS.. 06/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON 44800513 44660776 44990875 45050977 45341031 45721018
47010890 47390847 47540778 47720691 47660582 47560532
47230454 45280453 44800513

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