MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1167

ACUS11 KWNS 301928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301928
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-302030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID...SW MT...NW WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 301928Z - 302030Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN ID INTO SW MT AND EXTREME NW WY.
MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

19Z SATELLITE INDICATES A WEAK MCV-LIKE FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL
MT MOVING NE. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS CNTRL ID INTO SW MT...AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
70S WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 45-55 RANGE. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /H7-H5 LR AOA 7.0 C/KM/ ARE
PRESENT PER 12Z AREA RAOBS. CONTINUED STRONG SFC HEATING WILL WEAKEN
THE CAP AND RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /ML CAPE BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG PER SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. A FEW STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM CNTRL ID INTO SW MT AND FAR NW WY.

STRONG FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW IS
RESULTING IN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS/. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
EXTEND FROM CNTRL ID INTO SW MT AND FAR NW WY...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SERN ID AS WELL.

..DEAN.. 06/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 45321432 46221382 46771294 47281161 47560996 47050902
46230886 45450902 44830940 44400985 44101026 43711099
43361132 42861187 42271290 42291408 43001457 44061464
44851456 45321432

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.