SWODY1
SPC AC 301959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
VALID 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF TX INTO SW LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MT/WRN
ND...
...TX COASTAL REGION TO SW LA COAST...
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED NNEWD TO INCLUDE THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE TX COAST AND SWRN LA COAST. NELY SURFACE WINDS WITHIN THESE
AREAS COMBINED WITH LOW-MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEERING WITH HEIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
SHOWED EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2 OVER S TX WHICH IS
LOCATED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE ALEX AND VALUES OF 200-300
M2/S2 FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO SW LA. TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED TO 10 PERCENT OVER THE DEEP S TX COASTAL AREA WHERE
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED ROTATIONAL COUPLETS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF ALEX AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL TONIGHT /SEE LATEST NHC
ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. FARTHER NNE ALONG THE
MIDDLE-UPPER TX COAST TO SW LA...THE FAVORABLE SRH VALUES WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVE INLAND.
...ELSEWHERE...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS AS FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
..PETERS.. 06/30/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/
...S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
HURRICANE ALEX IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT IN NE MEXICO
/SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS N OF THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD S TX
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE WNW...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE. GIVEN THE BROAD PLUME OF 77-80 F DEWPOINTS
N/NE OF THE HURRICANE CORE...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS
SPREADING INLAND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
...MT/WRN ND AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
SOME MIDLEVEL CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER SW/S CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING
WITHIN A MOISTURE PLUME TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF AN EJECTING
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MT. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIOS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR NEW STORMS TO FORM ON THE E EDGE OF
THE THICKER CLOUDS AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN SE MT/WRN
ND...WHILE OTHER STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW/S CENTRAL
MT AND SPREAD NEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CLOUDS. THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL VARY FROM STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF S/SW
MT...THE STRONGER INSTABILITY/GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND.
THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS AND SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH EACH
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
...SE STATES INTO FL THIS AFTERNOON...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DEEP MOIST PROFILES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE GULF
COAST AND SE ATLANTIC STATES. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...SURFACE
HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN REDUCED...AND THE RELATED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS HAS LIKEWISE BEEN REDUCED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS INTO GA. FARTHER S...RICH MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRIVE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE
FORMATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FL. THE
DOWNBURST THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SW
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE STORM/BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...NLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT ANVIL BLOWOFF TO THE S AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
OF STRONGEST HEATING S OF OKEECHOBEE...ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BE
MAXIMIZED.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment